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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."